Dreaming of a White Christmas?
Find out the historical probability of snow on December 25th for over 100 locations across the USA and Canada. Will you wake up to a winter wonderland?
White Christmas Calculator
Your Results
Select your location and click “Calculate” to see your probability of a White Christmas!
You have a high chance of a White Christmas in Minneapolis, MN!
What is a “White Christmas”?
For meteorologists and this calculator, a White Christmas is defined as having at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25th. It’s not about snow falling on that day, but about the magical white blanket already covering the ground when you wake up.
The probabilities shown are based on the latest 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information and data from Environment and Climate Change Canada. They represent the historical average chance over three decades.
⚠️ Important Note: These are historical probabilities, not a forecast. The actual weather on Christmas Day 2025 will depend on that year’s specific weather patterns. For a real forecast, check Weather.gov a few days before Christmas.
Which Areas Have the Highest Probability?
Snow on Christmas is almost a guarantee in some regions, while it’s a rare miracle in others. Here’s a breakdown:
❄️ United States: High-Probability Zones
These regions historically have a greater than 90% chance of a White Christmas:
- Alaska (most of the state)
- Minnesota & Northern Wisconsin
- Maine & Upstate New York
- The Rocky Mountains (Colorado, Wyoming, Idaho)
- The Allegheny Mountains of Pennsylvania and West Virginia
Cities like Bettles, AK; Aspen, CO; and Marquette, MI top the list with over 90% odds.
🍁 Canada: The Great White North
While not all of Canada is snowy on Christmas, many cities have near-certain odds. Iqaluit, Whitehorse, and Yellowknife have practically a 100% historical probability. Overall, Canadian cities have about a 68% chance of a White Christmas—much higher than the U.S. average.
🌴 Low-Probability Areas (<10% chance)
- The Gulf Coast and Deep South
- Most of California and the Southwest
- Vancouver, BC (only ~10% chance)
Climate Change & White Christmases
Is climate change affecting your chances? Comparing the 1981-2010 map to the current 1991-2020 map shows subtle but consistent shifts.
- The zone with a less than 10% probability (dark gray on maps) has expanded northward in the U.S., especially across the South.
- More areas have seen decreases in probability than increases.
- However, in very cold regions where December temperatures are consistently below freezing, long-term warming may not yet have a strong impact on the chance of snow on a single specific day.
Snow cover on Christmas is still largely determined by that year’s daily weather systems, but the long-term climate trend is toward slightly lower probabilities in many marginal snow areas.
Fun Facts & Christmas Weather History
A last-minute storm gave 48 lower states widespread snow, making it the 5th most extensive White Christmas in a 15-year NOAA database.
The coldest recorded temperature on Christmas Day in the U.S. (outside Alaska).
Despite its northern latitude, coastal Vancouver only sees a White Christmas about once per decade.
Can You Build a Snowman or Igloo?
Our calculator checks your snow depth!
- Snowman: Needs about 5 inches of packed snow.
- Igloo: Requires 15 inches or more of well-packed snow for stable blocks.